Conferences

This study contributes to ACCLIMATE Work Package 4 (WP4) by assessing the impacts of policies that influence agricultural commodity trade and the distribution of land uses within the AFOLU (Agriculture, Forestry, and Other Land Use) sector. The EU Deforestation Regulation (EUDR), often criticized for its unilateral adoption, has been identified by stakeholders as a key policy likely to shape future agricultural commodity trade and sectoral dynamics in AFOLU. By examining the EUDR’s potential effects on deforestation patterns and the long-term mitigation potential of the AFOLU sector, the study provides valuable insights into how such policies may affect global cooperation and climate mitigation outcomes.

The work is the result of a collaboration between BC3 and Roma Tre University, led by postdoc Francesco Carciolari.

This study aims to examine the potential of recovery packages to bridge the long-term climate ambition gap. To enable such comprehensive assessment, first it develops an open-access database taking stock of all announced green recovery measures. Second, these measures are explicitly translated into three Integrated Assessment Models, allowing the assessment of their implications for energy systems, emissions, and technology development globally in a dedicated scenario exercise. Third, it quantifies the missed opportunity in global recovery spending in terms of accelerating the clean energy transition, by exploring a theoretical reallocation of funding from energy affordability measures towards green technologies. Results suggest that, while current recovery funding may not be sufficient to boost climate efforts with sustained effects post-2030, redirecting part of the recovery funds to clean technologies could accelerate decarbonisation and electrification trends in some sectors. With or without altering the global COVID-19 recovery portfolio to a synthesis that is more favourable in energy transition terms, however, recovery funds alone cannot ensure a just and inclusive transition unless complemented by systemic reforms, targeted sectoral strategies, and international collaboration.